Breaking Down Chances to Advance Past Kansas

By ESPN

After a Talladega race that saw most of the NASCAR playoff drivers leave early with wrecked race cars, the contenders know they can't find more trouble Sunday at Kansas Speedway if they want to advance to the semifinal round of eight.

The best way to make sure they advance is with a win, as Martin Truex Jr. and Brad Keselowski have accomplished in the first two races of the round. That leaves 10 drivers vying for the remaining six spots, and it won't be until the first two stages at Kansas are complete that there is a clearer picture of where drivers must finish to advance.

But here's a look at their chances at Kansas, where Truex won in May:
Kyle Larson

Points: 29 points ahead of ninth, 22 points ahead of eighth

Clinches if finishes: Third

Outlook: He's in good shape. He started ninth and finished sixth at Kansas earlier this year. A top-10 finish will likely get him through, and he's posted a top-10 finish in each of the first four playoff races.

Kevin Harvick

Points: 22 points ahead of ninth, 15 points ahead of eighth

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: Harvick has won twice at Kansas. He doesn't need to win, and like Larson, he just needs a top-10 to feel good. He has finished in the top three in six of the past eight Kansas races, including a second, first and third in the previous three races.
Denny Hamlin

Points: 21 points ahead of ninth, 14 points ahead of eighth

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: Hamlin oozes confidence but finishes of 15th or worse at Kansas in four of his past five races there and 13th or worse in seven of his past nine could concern fans. They should be cautiously optimistic.
Chase Elliott

Points: 20 points ahead of ninth, 13 points ahead of eighth

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: The way Elliott has driven in the playoffs (he has three second-place finishes in four races), he should advance. Just don't tell him he was 31st and 29th in his past two Kansas starts.
Ryan Blaney

Points: Nine points ahead of ninth, two points ahead of eighth

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: Blaney sat on the pole in May at Kansas, led 83 laps and finished fourth. If he can do that again, he'll advance. But with the way the Fords are running, that's a big if.

Jimmie Johnson

Points: Two points ahead of ninth

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: He has three career wins at Kansas but has led just 15 laps in his past six starts there. He started 29th and finished 24th in May. No wonder he was lobbying for extra spots after the crash at Talladega.
Kyle Busch

Points: Seven points behind eighth, nine points behind seventh

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: These are times that prove what champions are made of, as they must perform after finding themselves in a hole. Busch has finishes of third, fifth, first, fifth and fifth at Kansas -- after posting just two top-10s (and no top-5s) in his first 13 starts there.
Matt Kenseth

Points: Eight points behind eighth, 10 points behind seventh

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: Kenseth has two career Kansas wins and led 116 laps on his way to a ninth-place finish there a year ago. He was 12th in May. He'll have to use his veteran coolness in hopes of putting the pressure on young drivers such as Elliott and Blaney -- and hope they crack.
Ricky Stenhouse Jr.

Points: 22 points behind eighth, 24 points behind seventh

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: He has no top-10 finishes at Kansas in his nine Cup starts at the track. He did start fourth and finish 11th in May. That likely wouldn't be good enough to advance, and it's hard to envision him finishing much better.
Jamie McMurray

Points: 29 points behind eighth, 31 points behind seventh

Clinches if finishes: First

Outlook: He has never finished in the top five at Kansas. There's always next year.