Dry Pattern Forecasted for Harvest

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Published on September 9 2024 2:44 pm
Last Updated on September 9 2024 2:46 pm

USDA ranked Illinois’ soybean crop as 12% excellent, 56% good, 22% fair, 7% poor and 3% very poor as of Sept. 1. (Photo by Catrina Rawson)

BY RHIANNON BRANCH FarmWeek

Corn and soybean harvest is right around the corner and Illinois’ state climatologist said it appears combines won’t see the same rain delays planters did in the spring.

Trent Ford told FarmWeek September will bring cool, fall-like temperatures early in the month, followed by warmer temperatures in the middle. And models are consistently showing the drier pattern that closed out August will continue into at least the first half of September.

The forecast could be good or bad for farmers depending on their crop’s stage and the location of their fields, Ford said.

“If your crop is at the point where dry weather will help with dry down and getting some early harvest done, the weather should be very conducive for that,” he said. “But if you have some late-planted beans that could just use one more shot of rain, that may not be such great news.”

The dry forecast doesn’t bode well for water levels on the Mississippi River, which are falling due to drought in areas of the Ohio River tributary, Ford said.

“That flow into the lower Mississippi has been way below normal, so we’re starting to see those lower Mississippi levels between Memphis and New Orleans dipped down to the low flow stage yet again,” he explained.

Ford said looking at the forecast, dredging that was necessary the past couple of fall seasons may need to happen again. “It’s just something folks are going to have to deal with yet again and maybe some issues with transportation with this low river,” he said.

Ford said Aug. 31 marked the last day of climatological summer, which brought Illinois unusual temperatures.

“June was very warm,” he said. “Actually, the average temperature in June in Illinois was higher than July and August, which is the opposite of normal. June is usually the coolest month of the season.”

Summer precipitation varied by region, but Ford said the third-wettest July on record was offset by slightly drier conditions in August, which averaged out for most areas of the state.

“A few places were very much above normal as far as precipitation is concerned, including Salem, which had 19 inches for the summer, the seventh wettest,” he noted.

The lack of rain in August did put portions of northeastern and southwestern Illinois in the abnormally dry category on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

“For example, in August, Carbondale only got about 0.7 inches of rain, making it the fourth-driest August on record,” Ford said. “But we didn’t see significant drought issues because of how wet July was.”

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported as of Sep. 1, 95% of the corn crop was in the dough stage, with 70% dented and 24% mature. The crop was rated 17% excellent, 54% good, 21% fair, 5% poor and 3% very poor.

Soybeans at the pod-setting stage reached 96% as of the same date with 14% dropping leaves. NASS considers the crop 12% excellent, 56% good, 22% fair, 7% poor and 3% very poor.USDA also reported precipitation for the last week in August was above average statewide bringing the subsoil moisture totals to 1% surplus, 70% adequate, 22% short and 7% very short. Topsoil moisture is considered 2% surplus, 67% adequate, 23% short and 8% very short.