Poll Shows Close Contest Between Bailey and Bost in Congressional Primary

The contest for the Republican congressional nomination in the 12th District could be a close one, if the results from one poll are any indication.

A poll conducted by Brushfire of 300 likely primary voters have former state senator and gubernatorial candidate Darren Bailey with a 48%-44% edge over incumbent Congressman Mike Bost. The poll was conducted January 16-18. That compares to an August poll that had Bailey leading 50%-39%. The poll results were released by the Bailey campaign on Tuesday.

However, the percentage of those who said they would definitely vote for Bailey is 31%, compared to 33% in August, whereas the total who said they would definitely vote for Bost is now 23%, compared to 24% in August. The numbers went up for those who were probably Bost and leaning Bost from August to this month, and stayed even for Bailey.

The poll also asked voters what they feel is the most important problem facing the US today. Whereas responses in August were evenly spread among four different issues, the January survey found 47% of respondents choosing immigration as the chief problem, far ahead of any other issue.

Breaking down the responses for each candidate, here are the results: Definitely Bailey--31%, Probably Bailey--11%, Lean Bailey--6%; Definitely Bost--23%, Probably Bost--15%, Lean Bost--6%. 

The margin of error is plus or minus 5.66%.