Warm Temperatures Likely in August

BY DAN GRANT, FARM WEEK NOW

It appears the warm trend that began in May could continue through the remainder of the climatological summer.

The National Weather Service outlook for August calls for an increased chance of warmer-than-normal temperatures.

If realized, this would follow a toasty stretch in which May was the warmest on record in Illinois, June was the 11th-warmest and the temperature the first 19 days of July averaged 77.4 degrees, 1.5 degrees above normal.

Near-term, the forecast calls for a cold front during the weekend, with possible thunderstorms and high temperatures in the upper 70s, before warming back up next week to the mid- to upper 80s in much of the state.

The abnormally warm conditions the past three months kicked crop development into high gear, and it hasn’t slowed since.

The majority of corn (97 percent) silked as of the first of this week (17 percent ahead of the average pace), 88 percent of soybeans bloomed (21 percent ahead of average) and 66 percent of sorghum set pods (42 percent ahead of average) in the state.

Meanwhile, the second cutting of alfalfa hay is 91 percent complete statewide, 11 percent ahead of average, and the third cutting is 9 percent ahead of average at 16 percent complete.

“We caught a bunch of heating-degree days early that brought these crops on fast,” said Jerry Graves, a Richland County farmer. “It all depends on the weather from here on out. If it stays warm, we could start harvest early.”

Rainfall remains very spotty. Statewide, average precipitation the first 19 months of July totaled 1.94 inches, 7 percent below average, according to Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey.

Topsoil moisture is rated 77 percent adequate, 20 percent short to very short and just 3 percent surplus in the state.

“Strangely, the interior of the state is experiencing near to above-normal precipitation (this month), while the edges have experienced below-normal precipitation,” Angel said.

Crop conditions remain impressive, though, as 82 percent of corn and 78 percent of beans are rated good to excellent in Illinois.

The potential of another big harvest, combined with low crop prices this summer and a lack of old-crop sales, could pressure bin space this fall.

“Uncertainty is the key word right now,” Toni Dunker, market analyst with Advance Trading in Quincy, told the RFD Radio Network®. “Farmers need to be preparing for fall and looking at storage options.”

On the livestock side, Dunker sees a tale of two different trends when comparing the cattle and hog markets.

“We’ve rallied cattle back up ($8-$10) from May lows. Producers need to take a look at hedging at this point,” Dunker noted. “In the hog market, we continue the downward spiral. Producers need to look for retracement opportunities to get price protection in place.”