Legislative Remap Looming in Illinois

BY KAY SHIPMAN, FARM WEEK NOW

Given the early campaigning, most Illinois voters know the state is poised for primary and general elections but may underestimate the jockeying under way for 2021 and a key 2022 election.

Think legislative map.  

“This year, the driving issue behind the scene in the State Capitol is who will control the legislative redistricting process in 2021,” said Kevin Semlow, Illinois Farm Bureau director of state legislation.

A political chess game ensues preceding a national census, which will occur in 2020. Illinois will draw new legislative districts in 2021, followed by the 2022 election. And that election will be a political jackpot.

In 2022, all state constitutional officers and members of the General Assembly will run for office. That’s why the political parties consider this year’s elections critical for success in 2022, according to Semlow.

“Part of the primary and general election interest is who will be elected governor and which party will control the majority of the General Assembly,” Semlow explained. “Historically, the Democrats have controlled the House and Senate during a redistricting session.”

The state process to redraw legislative districts follows the process established in the Illinois Constitution. Basically, the General Assembly draws a map of legislative districts that state law dictates must be approved by the governor. Traditionally, when the governor belongs to a different party than the majority party in the legislature, the governor vetoes the map, Semlow noted.

If the map is vetoed, responsibility for a new map falls to an eight-member redistricting commission comprised of an equal number of Republicans and Democrats. If commission members can’t agree on a map – frequently the case in the past – the Supreme Court submits the names of two people from different political parties to the secretary of state, who publicly draws a name at random to serve as a ninth commission member. The commission must adopt a map by Oct. 5.

An anomaly occurred in 2011, when Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn approved the legislative map drawn by a Democratic-majority General Assembly, Semlow noted. “The political goal of 2018 elections will be to control the House, Senate and the governor’s seat, enabling that party to draw the map as in 2011,” he said.

Throw into this year’s political mix an unusually high number of incumbent representatives and senators who will not run for their seats. Semlow estimated there are about 30 from both chambers.

“That situation is leading to a lot of new faces in the districts. Many of the retirements are occurring in politically safe districts,” Semlow said. “Politically speaking, the primary election will determine who will serve in those safe districts.”