Weather Experts: Early Frost Unlikely

BY DAN GRANT

A shift in the weather pattern this month doesn’t necessarily indicate a cool harvest season on the way or increased chances of an early frost.

A cold front rolled into the Midwest the first week of the month and dropped low temperatures into the 50s with highs in the 70s.

The National Weather Service predicted temperatures in Illinois would remain below average through the first half of August.

This was a revision from its previous August outlook, which called for the warmer-than-normal pattern to continue in Illinois. Only May was cooler than normal from January through July.

“We’ve had a cool start to the month, but I think it will be a pretty decent month for soybeans to get in their primary reproductive time frame,” said Bryce Anderson, DTN senior ag meteorologist. “One thing that makes me nervous is if the eastern section of the Corn Belt stays wet enough to cause issues there.”           

The first frost typically occurs in Illinois around early to mid-October in northern Illinois and later in the month in the southern half of the state.

“Temperatures in August have little relevance to the risk of early frost,” said Jim Angel, state climatologist with the Illinois State Water Survey.

In fact, Anderson believes the warm trend may return and possibly delay the first frost this fall by a week or two.

The National Weather Service predicted an increased chance of above-normal temperatures this fall in Illinois, prior to its revision for August.

“It doesn’t look like there will be an early end to the growing season with an early frost,” Anderson said. “The idea that temperatures could be above normal for the fall season leads to the idea the first frost will be a little later arriving. That’s not a bad situation.”

Anderson’s moisture outlook calls for a possible improvement of abnormally dry conditions in parts of central and southern Illinois.

But the drought west of the Mississippi River likely will linger.

“In central and southern Illinois, there’ll be chances for the drier pattern to improve to finish out summer,” Anderson said. “But, from central Iowa west and northwest, I don’t think there will be a real drought-ending type of rainfall pattern through the fall season.”

Elsewhere, a warm summer in the Delta and southern Plains could lead to an early start to harvest in those areas.

So, how could that possibly impact farmers in Illinois and other northerly locations?

“We could see an earlier-than-normal supply of new-crop corn in the cash grain market from the southern Corn Belt,” Anderson said. “That might show up in the cash grain analysis.”